For these reasons, less used approach to forecasting energy demand, based on the assumption that the level of energy consumption per capita and population in the world called in some countries in the end come to a steady state.
For illustration in Fig. 1.7 presents forecast of consumption of chrome. It is based on a mathematical model that takes into account scientific and technological developments in the technology of production and consumption of resources, the discovery of new deposits, economic factors. As can be seen from the figure, the annual consumption of U chromium increases (increasing by 2.6%, which is a high rate), with a rapid depletion of its resources R.
Some trends in the development of social production and its impact on energy consumption
The problem of determining the level of stabilization of per capita energy use is a complex issue. In the first approximation, we can assume that the stabilization of the world at large will happen at level close to the highest level of energy consumption per capita, currently achieved in industrialized countries. Specific energy consumption in these countries is about 10 kW (heat) ■ year / person Note that in 1975 the world's energy intensity in the average was 2.3 kW (th) • year / person.
In the future, when the Earth's population will increase, an additional per capita energy for re-use of resources, water desalination, hydrogen production, food products, etc., to determine the numerical value of this correction requires a systems analysis taking into account trends in the development of industry and agriculture in the world, the rate of consumption of non-renewable resources of the planet, assessment of the time there are no more, and, finally, an assessment rate of pollution and the effects of such pollution.
The exponential growth of industrial production has caused an exponential increase in the need for various types of minerals. A simple calculation of timing out of stock of some important species for industrial minerals in different estimates of reserves and rate of recovery from the depths of the earth. The accuracy of these calculations is low, at just enough to judge the degree of the severity of the needs of industry in the mineral raw materials. From the data table that minerals such as lead, zinc, copper, and many others, will be in short supply by the end of this century. This will require the development of deposits of low-grade ores (they account for 65% of the total), field development, at greater than traditional depths offshore deposits and igneous rocks. More pointedly raise the question of re-use of components.